Saturday

Very interesting card today and I will likely have 3 plays. Starts off early with the Rockies.

Colorado +1.5 +111(2.11) over NY Yankees 1 unit

Several things is setting this up perfect. The Rockies won last night and the public don't think they will do it again. Sabathia is their stud and over rated.

This line has made a huge move from opening at -112(1.88) so it is a must play in my book. The odds keep going up so wait as long as you can.

Friday

Pittsburg +1.5 -111(1.89) over Boston 1.5 units also Houston +122(2.22) over Tampa 1 unit

Later dogs

St Louis over Philadelphia +141(2.41) 1 unit

Philly is generally over rated, especially with Lee. Several sources again agreeing here so this is a no brainer bet.

Lohses is underated and I like these trends.

Cardinals are 10-2 in Lohses last 12 starts as a home underdog.

Cardinals are 5-2 in Lohses last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Kansas city over Arizona +110(2.1) 1 unit

Another ugly dog that nobody wants, yet the line is going down on Pinnacle.

Big Wednesday

No plays for a few days as I have been traveling. VERY interesting card today and I will have 3 plays.

New York Mets over Oakland +100(2.0) 1 unit

Several of my sources agrees here so it is a must play. Watching how the market bet this game supports this bet. The Mets opened as -108(1.92) fav and was bet down hard to -120 (1.83). After that, today the public has bet the other side all day giving us very nice value on the home team. The sharps are clearly on the home team here some I'm very confident doing the same.

The public is trusting Gonzales to much here imo.

Oakland

is the only play today. Very interesting how the market has bet this game. The public likes the giants but the odds have gone down, alot since it opened. There are different opinons on what to do with games like this. Some say there is no value left but the fact is that these games hit very often. There is some serious sharp money on this 31-40 team.

Oakland over San Fransisco -110(1.91) 2 units

2nd play Friday

is

Seattle over Philadelphia -106(1.94) 1 unit

Friday

Bets bet today is Milwaukee imo.

Milwaukee over Boston +124(2.24) 1.5 units

I continue to fade Boston as the public is betting their streak creating nice value. These odds have been bet up during the day.

Both teams have some trends going for them but I like I few for MIL.

Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.

Brewers are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Brewers are 23-10 in their last 33 overall.

Brewers are 11-1 in their last 12 games following a loss.

Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games as an underdog.

Lackey is overated imo. He has some good long term stats but this year he has not been good going 4-5 with an ERA of 7.41

Thursday

3 plays today

I'll update with some write ups as I go

Tampa over Boston -118(1.85) 2 units

I like that tampa has such a good record against Boston.

Red Sox are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings.

Red Sox are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Price is a great pitcher, better than his 7-5 record this year.
 Rays are 36-15 in Prices last 51 starts.
Rays are 25-7 in Prices last 32 starts with 4 days of rest.
Pinnacle aslo agrees, staying under or the same odds as the other books. It is a great sign when Pinnacle is very low on a game.
Washington over St Louis -103(1.97) 1 unit

Washington is playing great right now and i think it will continue. We get some nice value here, the public don't think St Louis is going to get swept.

I like lannan here as a fav. WAS are 7-2 in Lannans last 9 starts as a favorite.

Atlanta-New York under 8 +100(2.0)

I'm betting against the public here again. The over has been bet hard giving us nice value on the under.

Under is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings

The ref might help as well. Under is 40-13 in Hoyes last 53 games behind home plate

Problems

I have had computer problem today so thats why I'm so late with posting plays.

The other play I took today is Washington. It sucks that I couldn't post it earlier since it has steamed down late.

For the hockey game I like the under just like the whole series but those odds has been bet down hard all day. I recomend taking it live if there is a goal or 2 in the first epriod.

Wednesday Baseball

It looks like I will have a few plays today

Florida over Philly +173(2.73) 1 unit

Halladay is overated imo and Sanchez is a solid pitcher. The public help quiet a bit here creating nice value. Florida is a good team away with 17-13.

Tampa

I will have a 2 unit bet on Tampa. The game starts in about 90 min. I will wait since I think the odds will go up a little. I will post official odds in about an hour.

Tampa over Boston -125(1.8) 2 units

I thought the odds would move some but nothing happened. Thats not a bad sign though.

Boston are 3-9 against Tampa the last 12
Red Sox are 5-15 in Wakefields last 20 road starts vs. a team with a winning record
Red Sox are 1-5 in Wakefields last 6 road starts vs. Rays.

Rays are 9-3 in Shields' last 12 starts.

Wakefield is a liability for Boston. The public keeps betting Boston because of their streak and this gives us nice value against the public road dog. Public road dogs usually do very bad.

Im also considering the under in the same game since Under is 38-12-1 in Rays last 51 home games.

I might add the under later.

Tuesday

Early play

Washington over St Louis +130(2.3) 1 unit

Monday Hockey

Boston-Vancover under 5 +100(2.0) 1.5 units

These odds might go up and if you get +105 or better its a 2 unit play.

These teams are are 108-85 under for the season. They are 3-1-1 under for this finals series. Goal tending has been great so far. I've been watching most of these games and love the under here.

Sunday

Kansas City-LA Angels under 9 -103(1.97) 1 unit

The public likes the over because of the high scoring game yesterday. KC is an "overish" team but LA has only scored more than 3 runs once in the last 10 games(yesterday). The LA defense is good so this is a really sold under.

some good trends

Under is 7-2 in LAA last 9 overall.

Under is 7-2 in LAA last 9 on grass.

Under is 33-13-6 in LAA last 52 home games

Umpire Greg Gibson will be behind the plate Sunday when the Royals visit the Angels. The Under is an impressive 34-12-6 in his last 52 games behind home plate, and 4-0-3 in his last seven games involving the Halos.


Toronto over Boston +160(2.6) 1 unit

I like Toronto in this spot and we are getting great value as the public loves Boston.
A few very interesting trends.

The Red Sox are 22-30 (-22units, -30% ROI) as a road favorite when on a winning streak of 3 or more games since 2004.

2011: 4-3
2010: 1-2
2009: 5-5
2008: 3-4
2007: 2-6

Road favorites on 8 game winning streaks are 5-13 (-13.5u, -51.3% ROI) last 8 years.

Home dogs with lines greater than +130 in game 3 of a series are 128-137 (+60.7u, 22.9% ROI) last 8 years where they lost the previous game.

more baseball

Yankees-Indians under 9.5 +110(2.1) 1 unit

This is one of those very square overs where the books win. The game yesterday went way over and the Yanks have 3 big overs in a row. When books open over 9.5 at -105 it looks very easy to take it, and many people did. Talbot is a good pitcher and is 6-2 under his last 8. Combined the two pitchers are 8-5 under the last 13.

This is a trap game where the books want action on the over. These games usually end up with the books winning. The game is in about an hour but wait and take this closer to game time.

Saturday

First play of the day is

Baltimore+110(2.1) over Tampa 1 unit

Friday Baseball and Hockey

3 plays are for sure today

Bruins-Canucks under 5 +103(2.03) 1 unit

Pittsburgh over New York Mets -105(1.95) 1 unit

Milwaukee over St Louis -109(1.92) 1 unit

Better odds are available on the hockey play and can be taken with 1.5 units if you get over +105(2.05)

Thursday

Kansas City over Toronto +128(2.28) @ Pinnacle 1 unit

I'm not sure if I will be in before this game starts so I post it now. Odds might go up even more.

The card looks very interesting so i think I will have 2 more.

1 more

After late info i will add one more play. The market agrees with my sources so I take this one a little bigger than normal.

Kansas City over Toronto -114(1.88) @ Pinnacle 1.5 units

More baseball

Is a play today again. The public has been driving the odds up all day. The game is in over an hour so I will wait and see if I can get an even better price.

Boston over New York +126(2.26) 1 unit

I might have another play later.

Wednesday baseball

Early game

Washington over San Fransisco +170(2.7) 1 unit

this one is going down on Pinnacle so shop around for best odds

Wednesday

It was a good day today with Boston covering the RL, Dirk going way under and livebetting this game worked out very well.

There is one play I will take early for tomorrow. The public is betting the hockey game(Boston-Vancover) over because of the high scoring game yesterday. I have watched all three games and the first were very "underish" with great goaltending. They key for the under imo, is if Boston can stay out of the penalty box. Vancovers defense will bounce back imo after that last crazy game.

Boston-Vancover under 5 +116 @ Pinnacle 1 unit

I might add a little more if the odds keep going up.

NBA and Baseball

So far I've been taking the under every(2-1) time in this series. Today I won't unless I get some information closer to tip off. I back off today because the line is adjusted(2 points) and I have a feeling there will be some points tonight. Watching the market I feel even more comfortable backing off.

I did take a shot at Nowitzki under 28.5 points(+100, 2.0). He played great the last game but I think Miami will be all over him today. I think the rest of the Dallas team is going to have to win it for them today. I think it's likely Dirk will be doubled today.

It would be easy to assume that I like Miami again, since I maxed out last game but I'm not sure. I will likely back off and bet live if anything. Both teams are great at coming back in games and make it close, so I'm open to take both sides live.

As for bases I'm likely to bet Boston big. I'm waiting for confirmation on that one but it's likely to be a Double play. Might have one more but I'm still working on it.
Edit: posting the Boston pick now

Boston over NY Yankees -120(1.83) 1.5 units
Boston -1.5 +135(2.35) 0.5 units

Houston over St Louis +125(2.25)  1 unit

Monday

One play today

Minnesota over Cleveland +139(2.39) @ Pinnacle 1 unit

NBA finals game 3

I have two bets on the game. As I said earlier I will take the under. I will also place a bigger bet on Miami ML. Miami is a great bounce back team. I think they will come out hungry and over power Dallas. Miami has imo shown that they are the better team. They totally dominated game 2 until the very end where they quit playing. The market and my sources agree so I am very confident in this pick.

With more info coming in I am uppgrading this play to my max wager triple play.

Miami over Dallas +117(2.17) @ Pinnacle 3 units

Miami first half ml +113(2.13) @ Pinnacle 1 unit

Under 188 +103(2.03) @ Pinnacle 1 unit

Yankees

I've been writing for a few days that have been leaning against the Yankees. Today I pull the trigger and go against.

LA Angels over NY Yankees +110(2.1) @ various 1 unit

Sunday continued

We have won with two days in a row with Pittsburgh over Philadelphia and I'm going for 3 in a row. The pirates might ruin many parlays today imo. The public loving Halladay, gives us nice value here.

I like the run line!

Pittsburgh +1.5 over Phildelphia +100(2.0) @ various 1 unit

I might have more plays later..... This is more plays than I usually take. The matchups and many good situations for the home dogs makes me step out of my regular selective strategy somewhat.

Sunday

Nice with a good day today. I will have several plays Sunday and I am taking at least one of them early.

Oakland over Boston +122(2.22) @ Pinnacle 1 unit

I am already seeing sharps on this one so I don't think we will get better offers tomorrow. The public will be all over Boston with Lackey throwing but the line will still go down imo.

I will also very likely take the under again in the NBA finals. It will be best to wait so I'll post that number closer to tip.

more baseball

Baltimore over Toronto +110(2.1) @ Pinnacle 1 unit

I'm also considering going against the Yankees in the late game but im not sure yet.

Saturday

I will likely have several baseball plays today. One needs to be taken early since the odds are going down even though the public is all over the other side.

Pittsburgh  over Philadelphia -105+(1.95) 1 unit

better odds available so shop around

1 more play friday

Oakland +1.5 over Boston -118(1.85) @ Pinnacle 1.5 units

I like this play, my sources does as well and the market agrees.

The biggest sucker bet in a while is the Yankees. The line has gone down a lot and the books will make a big profit on that game imo. I like the spot and the market conditions for the Angels but not the fav price.

Friday includes both golf and baseball

Golf is the sport where I started my betting career many years ago. Imo the oddsmakers are not that good in this sports. I feel like I have always had an edge especially since they have to put out so many odds so fast. Unfortunately the limits are not great so I can't post the picks on the blog very often. The odds change too fast. Anyway, today there is a great opportunity to take advantage and get a big payout. Most books will have this one.

Mickelson 3 ball over Donald and Schwartzel +160+(2.6) 1 unit

There are better odds outthere so shop around.

Donald is very hot and ranked no 1 in the world but these odds are way off. Mickelson should not be a big dog to anybody, anywhere. Mickelson has a good record on this course and often follow up bad rounds with a good one.

Mickelson won a tournament not to long ago and a 9^th after that. He has decent form and I expect him to go low tomorrow. I always like Mickelson as a dog and really like the situation and odds here.

Baseball looks VERY interesting with some big teams getting huge public action. So far I have 1 play sincethe line has already moved a little bit. This is an automatic play for me just watching how the market is reacting.

Pittsburgh over Philadelphia +141(2.41) @ Pinnacle 1 unit

I will likely add at least one more later but we will see.

NBA finals+baseball

I will likely continue to take the under between the Heat and the Mavericks in this series unless something really changes. The last game both teams defended well causing trouble for the other team. I liked when Dallas went to the zone D and I think we will see some more of that tonight. I think it will cause Miami some problems just liek last time. I see many squares and touts still loving the over so that makes me likethe under even more. The game starts in 40 min but I will wait and hope for better odds closer to tip off.

Miami-Dalls under 187.5 +102(2.02) @ Pinnacle 1 unit

Again, if the game starts fast I will take another unit on the under live. The play is strong that I dont mind having 2 units on it.

Baseball

Washington over Arizona +110(2.1) @ various 1 unit

This one is going down on Pinnacle so shop around. I found +115(2.15) at a smaller book. My sources and the market say the same thing here!