First NCAA play

NCAAF

Saturday

Colorado +7 over Hawaii -107(1.93) @ Pinnacle 1 units

Colorado is undervalued because they have a 17 game losing streak on the road and a new coaching staff. However, the old coach was an idiot imo so I think this team might surprise this year. They return 16 starters which is huge. Experience is huge in NCAA sports since the players are only 18-22 years old.

Hawaii is only bringing back 9 starters from last year with only 4 on offense. The Hawaii QB is good but his receivers have had some injuries getting ready for the season and their main WR is suspended for this game.

I expect this line to go down by Saturday so I think it’s best to take it now.

I will have a few more bets but will wait on those since the lines are moving the right way.

Fotball season is finally here:)

The football season starts for real tomorrow with NCAA and here are a few lines about it since this sport is a little different from many others. I also explain some about how I bet for the new readers.

 Here is how the value is created imo. It is not about beating the books. It is about beating the other bettors. Public perception creates the value and often I “need” the same results as the books to profit. This means that I often bet “big games” such as the Super bowl, NCAA finals since “the public” always bet these games hard, creating nice value.

The public also often bets certain teams hard. These public teams are usually a good fade especially when they play on the road. Since there are many games it is very doable making a profit if picking games selectively.

Previous years I have picked many games late since it is important to know the latest about who will play and who won’t. I will still post some picks late, because of late info but also bets that are getting steamed late. However, I will post more bets early before odds are starting to go down. I have already done that this year in the NFL and will continue.

I’m mainly a dog bettors and I like to take small dogs for the first half since they might not get +3 for FT but any + line is very valuable for the HT bet since a game can be tied in HT but not FT.

2 plays today

St Louis +135 1 unit

Colorado +120 1 unit

2 plays today

Minnesota +1.5 -120 over Chicago 1.5 units

Minnesota

is the first of two plays today

Minnesota  over Detroit +108(2.08) 1 unit

Big Play

against Verlander today

Minnesota +1.5 over Detroit +111(2.11) 1.5 units

Minnesota +190(2.9) 0.5 units

Oakland

Oakland +140(2.4) over Boston 1 unit

Colorado +114(2.14) over LA 1 unit

Two early big nfl bets

Sep 12

Washington +3.5 over New York -110(1.91) 2 units


Washington is just about to finish their 3rd preseason game when I write this. The starters played the first half and they looked great. The offense looked sharp and the defense played very aggressive.
I think Washington could be a surprise team this season. They have the second highest odds to win the super bowl this year. However, Shanahan is a very good coach and has had some time to get this roster and scheme like he wants it. They are very under rated because of their QBs. The public and media is laughing at Grossman and Beck but they sure looked sharp today imo.
Pinnacle went from 1.88 down to 1.82 since the game started so it’s obvious that the sharps agree here.
New York had one very important injury last game with a starting corner back going down. That is a big blow to them and Washington will be able to exploit that. NY is a pretty solid team but they have too many weaknesses imo. QB Manning is overated imo. He had 31 tds last year but 25 ints aswell. That is many mistakes and with this aggressive Wash defense I think it’s likely Manning will make mistakes.
Washington will be very fired up in this home opener. Home field advantage is huge here and woerth more than the regular 3 points imo. The total for this game is 37 which is a low number in the NFL. Getting 3.5 is a big spread in a probably low scoring game. Most games are won by 3 so getting the hook is very valuable.
I think Washington should be favored about -3 here so it’s worth a major bet. I’m confident these odds will change quiet a bit so I advise also to set this up for a middle.
Just like the Denver bet I wish I could wait but this offer will not be here much longer…..

Denver -2.5 over Oakland -110(1.91) 1.5 units


Usually I don’t take bets this far in advance since things can change and injuries can happen but I make an exception. I had my eye on this one but now the line is changing and it is a must before this one hits -3 and beyond. Denver is under rated because of their terrible season last year. It was mostly their defense that struggled and was added on to with injuries. They have a new head coach(Fox) who’s focus is on defense. His defense has looked much improved in the first 2 games of the preseason. The offense looks sharp with both the passing and running looking good.
Oakland is over rated after going 6-0 in their division last year. They had some good breaks in some games and are not a solid team imo. They lost their best defender from last year and the defense has looked open in the preseason.
This will be a very emotional game for Denver. They got blown on twice against Oakland last year losing 59-14 at home. This is a Monday night game on prime time so home field advantage will be greater imo. Since it is also a big revenge game I really like this situation.

Denver will be better on both sides of the ball imo. There is a big difference between the QBs. Campbell had 13 tds and 8 int last year while Orton had 20-9.
Denver will play a different tougher type of football this year and so far it looks great. This style will fit perfect at home on a Monday night with the whole country watching. It’s important to take this before it hits 3 but I think they win comfortable by 10 so it’s worth an above med stake.     

Baseball

Kansas city +160 is the play today for 1 unit

Barclays 1st round

PGA Tour Barclays

1900 CET

Mahan over Dustin Johnson +100 @ Pinnacle 1.5 units

The Greek also offering the same play

Both players have not played as well as can lately. Mahan has played better with 34,37,19 his last 3.

Johnsons current form is not good with 48^th(in a small 75 players field) and a missed cut in the PGA.

Johnson is often hit or miss since he has several low finishes but also often play bad.

Mahan often starts tournaments well with a scoring average of 70(11^th on tour) for the two first rounds of tournaments. Johnson has 71.2(122th on tour in that category) This stat does not lie. Mahan starts much better than Johnson. With Johnson being a little out of form this is clearly worth a play since Mahan should be favored. I also like going against Johnson since I know he has an off the course issue....

Seattle

Is today's play at +150(2.5) 1unit

Golf

The bets are back after a few weeks off. Golf is a sport where books are often way off. I don't post golf that often since the limits are quiet low.

Wyndham Championships

Leonard to win 3 ball over Harrington,Casey +200(3+)  1 unit

All three players are struggling and have similar recent form. Harrington and Casey were late into this tournament since they need more points to make the post season.

Harrington has some serious ball striking problems. Both in greens and fairways hit he is very low. Casey is hitting some greens but hits no fairways.

Casey’s best finish in his last 7 starts in the US is 45^th and that was in a small field. He has not had a first round under 71 since March.

Harrington has played somewhat better but he has not been better than 54^th the last 4 weeks. Much of his game has been scrambling since he is hitting the ball so bad.

Leonard’s big weakness is that he hits the ball very short. He has to compensate for that by being close to perfect with the rest of his game. The good thing for this bet is that this course is very short. It also has only two par 5s and they are pretty short both of them. This means that also Leonard can reach these in two shots so the edge longer hitters usually have is gone here.

Leonard was 3^rd on this course last year, Casey 26^th and Harrington didn’t play.