The football season starts for real tomorrow with NCAA and here are a few lines about it since this sport is a little different from many others. I also explain some about how I bet for the new readers.
Here is how the value is created imo. It is not about beating the books. It is about beating the other bettors. Public perception creates the value and often I “need” the same results as the books to profit. This means that I often bet “big games” such as the Super bowl, NCAA finals since “the public” always bet these games hard, creating nice value.
The public also often bets certain teams hard. These public teams are usually a good fade especially when they play on the road. Since there are many games it is very doable making a profit if picking games selectively.
Previous years I have picked many games late since it is important to know the latest about who will play and who won’t. I will still post some picks late, because of late info but also bets that are getting steamed late. However, I will post more bets early before odds are starting to go down. I have already done that this year in the NFL and will continue.
I’m mainly a dog bettors and I like to take small dogs for the first half since they might not get +3 for FT but any + line is very valuable for the HT bet since a game can be tied in HT but not FT.
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