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Virginia -3 over Southern Miss -106(1.94) 2 units
SM has struggled so far on offense and it will get worse here. Virginia has a great Defensive front and they will create a lot of pressure on the SM QB.
Virginia is not a power house but they do have some good players but more importantly experience. They have 18 starters returning from last year which is very valuable. To get to a bowl game this year they need to win this game.

UCLA +4 over Oregon State -103(1.97) 1 unit 

Some better lines out there so shop around

Two struggling teams but Oregon St does not deserve to be a fav here. UCLA is not good but they are not that bad imo. They have lost to Houston and Texas so far this year. Both are decent teams and it will be easier today. UCLA rushed for 141 at Texas which is good. They also have a new QB in Brehaut that everyone seems to like better.
Sorry about the short write ups but very busy with the big card     

Saturday NCAA

1800 CET

Pittsburgh +7 over Notre Dame -105(1.95) 1 unit

ND is not as good as hyped up by many imo. They have only won one game this year mainly because of bad defense and many turnovers. That is a recipe for losing games, especially on the road. They have some weapons on offense but it’s tough to cover 7 on the road against a good team if you have a bad defense. ND also probably plays it a little save with their big turnover problems.

Pitt is a very good offensive team with good balance. This is their biggest home game of the year and will be very fired up. They got burned on defense last week to lose that game late but that doesn’t have to be a bad thing. More focus on defense this week and I think they will play better.

Pitt runs the ball well so I think they will be able to control the clock, keeping the ND offense on the side lines.

Best NCAA bet so far this year

is Colorado +14.5 imo.

I love the spot here with Ohio State struggling on offense. CU is playing better every game and I think they have a good shot at the upset here. They have some experience of defense and against a freshman QB I like their chances.

Colorado +14.5 over Ohio State +109(2.09) 2.7 units

Colorado ML +570(6.7) 0.3 units

This is the second max stake bet ever on this blog!

One NFL bet we need to take early

Tennessee -6.5 over Denver -110(1.91) 1.5 units

We need to take this early as several important Denver players have been ruled out for this game today. Several others are also banged up and will not be close to full strength.

I like Denver as a team at full strength but with these important players out or questionable I don’t like them at all. They are very thin at wide receiver. Their best defensive player, Dumervil ws ruled out today and that is a huge blow to this defense. They already had problems stopping the run against Oakland in week 1 and this game will be worse imo. Oakland ran for 190 yards in that game and Denver had no stop for it. Last week against Cincinnati Denver only game up  72 yards on the ground but Cincy is a worthless team imo, playing a rookie QB where it is easy to load up against the run.

This week Denver has to try to stop one of the best runners in the league. RB Johnson will only get better every game since he is still getting into it after his hold out for a new contract. Ten also have a very good QB in Hasselbeck and strong wide receivers. It is a very balanced attack that sets up play action passing with their good running game.

Tennessee put up over 400 yards on Baltimore last week which is very impressive. Because of this I’m comfortable laying -6.5 and I expect them to win big.  

Big plays

Illinois -2.5 over Arizona State -106 2 units

Florida State +3.5 over Oklahoma -104 2 units

LA Tech +6.5 over Houston -110 1 unit

Missisippi St

is tonights play

+3.5 -110 over LSU 1.5 units

A few more home dogs

Kansas +4.5 over N Illinois -105 1 unit

This line is going down but still plenty of value here. I like Kansas and think they will be good ATS this year. They have some experience and new head coach Gill is doing good things imo.

NI has a very inexperienced defense and a new coach who is playing it's first road game.

Kansas should be favored in my book.

Colorado +4.5 over California +120 1 unit

Trying Colorado again since I liked what I saw last week. Some protection problems but that was expected. First home game for the new coach that will have everyone fired up.

This is another team that I think will be good ATS, especially at home. It's important to remember the huge advantage CU has playing their home game on high altitude. College games are often 4 hours long and many teams wear down late in the game.

Under

for the first NFL game of the year

New Orleans-Green Bay under 47.5 -105 1 unit

These are two very good teams and yes, they can score some points. It is important to remember that these defenses are also very good. They were the 4th and the 5th ranked in the leauge last year. GB had many injuries last year I think their defense will be even sharper.

Some interesting stats

Under is 9-3 in Saints last 12 games in Week 1.
Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on grass.
Under is 17-7 in Saints last 24 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Early Dogs

The way these home dogs are going down it is necessary to bet some of them early. From what I see on the boards these are going to go down the next few days.

Army +9.5 over San Diego State -103 1 unit

Army looked terrible in their first game but they are not a bad team. I think they will bounce back strong at home.
SDST are traveling across the country to an early kickoff at noon on the east coast. This is a very difficult spot for them since that will be 9 in the morning their time. This is unusual in college football but more common in the NFL. In the NFL west coast teams struggle in this situation and I believe these young kids will have a tough time adjusting.

Penn State +10 over Alabama -105 1 unit 

An experienced home dog against a ranked team is usually a very successful formula in college football. This game is huge for Penn with nothing to lose on prime time TV with the whole country watching.
Alabama is very good but their QBs did not look good at all last week. I see the Alabama being a little too predictable because of this. The Penn D will be fired up and with all the experience they have, they should keep it close.

This week’s card looks very nice and I will have at least two more home dogs but we will likely get better offers closer to Saturday so I’ll wait with those.   

The U tonight

Miami +4 over Maryland -105(1.95) 1 unit

Miami is in huge trouble with the NCAA and will have to go trough a long investigation. This is why they are a dog in this game. They have several players suspended fro this game including the starting QB. In these situations it is typical for the public to over react and think the betting the home team is a steal.

I think Miami will come together as a team and win this game. The have a new good coach so in that way it's a fresh start. The weather is expected to be wet so I like Miami to run the ball and control the game and the clock in this game.

I also took Arizona early since I think that line will go under 14 by game time.

Arizona +14.5 over Oklahoma State -108(1.92) 1 unit    

More fotball:)

NCAA Fotball

Saturday

South Florida +10.5 over Notre Dame -107(1.93) 1.5 units  

Notre Dame has a high preseason ranking and they are being hyped in the media. ND has struggled for a long time but is still strangely enough a very public team. They have been horrible as a favorite and especially as a big fav.

Below are some very telling stats from last year.

·         Fighting Irish are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

·         Fighting Irish are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.

·         Fighting Irish are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

·         Fighting Irish are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.

·         Fighting Irish are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big East.

·         Fighting Irish are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.

·         Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

This is simply a big spread to cover and SF is not at all a bad team. There is always a lot of pressure on ND

SF is a very good underdog. They have a good running game and a solid defense.

· Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

·         Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

I see some very good forum posters on this game and watching the market I’m very confident in this pick.

 

LSU +3.5 over Oregon -110(1.91) 1 unit

Other books with similar and Pinnacle with a bit lower

It’s been crazy for both teams before this game with suspensions for both teams. LSU will play their backup QB which made them a bigger dog. However, I and others with me think they have a better chance with the backup that is a very capable player.

LSU is an interesting team with a crazy coach in Miles but I like them as a dog. LSU has a great D line and a very fast secondary. The speed on defense will able to disturb the fast Oregon offense imo.

There is some reverse line movement on this game so sharp money agrees here.

This game is played in Dallas so it’s more of a home field for LSU.

 UL Lafayette +38 over Oklahoma State -105(1.95) 1 unit 

The squares and the public like to bet the favorites, especially in the first week. I like a few big dogs but this is the best one imo. Oklahoma State is ranked 8^th in the country which is their highest ever pre season rank. OSU has had a few good years but this team is still not used to be a big time program. They have a very big game coming up against Arizona and many players will look forward to that game. I see OSU playing pretty sloppy in this first game. OSU has a new offensive coordinator which also could affect them.

ULL is obviously not good but they have an ok offensive line and a great TE. With only 5 starters returning for OSU on defense I can see the away team scoring some points.

With a big game coming up I can see OSU pulling some starters in the end opening up for a back door cover if needed.