More fotball:)

NCAA Fotball

Saturday

South Florida +10.5 over Notre Dame -107(1.93) 1.5 units  

Notre Dame has a high preseason ranking and they are being hyped in the media. ND has struggled for a long time but is still strangely enough a very public team. They have been horrible as a favorite and especially as a big fav.

Below are some very telling stats from last year.

·         Fighting Irish are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

·         Fighting Irish are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.

·         Fighting Irish are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

·         Fighting Irish are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.

·         Fighting Irish are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big East.

·         Fighting Irish are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.

·         Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

This is simply a big spread to cover and SF is not at all a bad team. There is always a lot of pressure on ND

SF is a very good underdog. They have a good running game and a solid defense.

· Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

·         Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

I see some very good forum posters on this game and watching the market I’m very confident in this pick.

 

LSU +3.5 over Oregon -110(1.91) 1 unit

Other books with similar and Pinnacle with a bit lower

It’s been crazy for both teams before this game with suspensions for both teams. LSU will play their backup QB which made them a bigger dog. However, I and others with me think they have a better chance with the backup that is a very capable player.

LSU is an interesting team with a crazy coach in Miles but I like them as a dog. LSU has a great D line and a very fast secondary. The speed on defense will able to disturb the fast Oregon offense imo.

There is some reverse line movement on this game so sharp money agrees here.

This game is played in Dallas so it’s more of a home field for LSU.

 UL Lafayette +38 over Oklahoma State -105(1.95) 1 unit 

The squares and the public like to bet the favorites, especially in the first week. I like a few big dogs but this is the best one imo. Oklahoma State is ranked 8^th in the country which is their highest ever pre season rank. OSU has had a few good years but this team is still not used to be a big time program. They have a very big game coming up against Arizona and many players will look forward to that game. I see OSU playing pretty sloppy in this first game. OSU has a new offensive coordinator which also could affect them.

ULL is obviously not good but they have an ok offensive line and a great TE. With only 5 starters returning for OSU on defense I can see the away team scoring some points.

With a big game coming up I can see OSU pulling some starters in the end opening up for a back door cover if needed.