Virginia -3 over Southern Miss -106(1.94) 2 units
SM has struggled so far on offense and it will get worse here. Virginia has a great Defensive front and they will create a lot of pressure on the SM QB.
Virginia is not a power house but they do have some good players but more importantly experience. They have 18 starters returning from last year which is very valuable. To get to a bowl game this year they need to win this game.
UCLA +4 over Oregon State -103(1.97) 1 unit
Some better lines out there so shop around
Two struggling teams but Oregon St does not deserve to be a fav here. UCLA is not good but they are not that bad imo. They have lost to Houston and Texas so far this year. Both are decent teams and it will be easier today. UCLA rushed for 141 at Texas which is good. They also have a new QB in Brehaut that everyone seems to like better.
Sorry about the short write ups but very busy with the big card
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Saturday NCAA
1800 CET
Pittsburgh +7 over Notre Dame -105(1.95) 1 unit
ND is not as good as hyped up by many imo. They have only won one game this year mainly because of bad defense and many turnovers. That is a recipe for losing games, especially on the road. They have some weapons on offense but it’s tough to cover 7 on the road against a good team if you have a bad defense. ND also probably plays it a little save with their big turnover problems.
Pitt is a very good offensive team with good balance. This is their biggest home game of the year and will be very fired up. They got burned on defense last week to lose that game late but that doesn’t have to be a bad thing. More focus on defense this week and I think they will play better.
Pitt runs the ball well so I think they will be able to control the clock, keeping the ND offense on the side lines.
Friday, September 23, 2011
Best NCAA bet so far this year
is Colorado +14.5 imo.
I love the spot here with Ohio State struggling on offense. CU is playing better every game and I think they have a good shot at the upset here. They have some experience of defense and against a freshman QB I like their chances.
Colorado +14.5 over Ohio State +109(2.09) 2.7 units
Colorado ML +570(6.7) 0.3 units
This is the second max stake bet ever on this blog!
One NFL bet we need to take early
Tennessee -6.5 over Denver -110(1.91) 1.5 units
I love the spot here with Ohio State struggling on offense. CU is playing better every game and I think they have a good shot at the upset here. They have some experience of defense and against a freshman QB I like their chances.
Colorado +14.5 over Ohio State +109(2.09) 2.7 units
Colorado ML +570(6.7) 0.3 units
This is the second max stake bet ever on this blog!
One NFL bet we need to take early
Tennessee -6.5 over Denver -110(1.91) 1.5 units
We need to take this early as several important Denver players have been ruled out for this game today. Several others are also banged up and will not be close to full strength.
I like Denver as a team at full strength but with these important players out or questionable I don’t like them at all. They are very thin at wide receiver. Their best defensive player, Dumervil ws ruled out today and that is a huge blow to this defense. They already had problems stopping the run against Oakland in week 1 and this game will be worse imo. Oakland ran for 190 yards in that game and Denver had no stop for it. Last week against Cincinnati Denver only game up 72 yards on the ground but Cincy is a worthless team imo, playing a rookie QB where it is easy to load up against the run.
This week Denver has to try to stop one of the best runners in the league. RB Johnson will only get better every game since he is still getting into it after his hold out for a new contract. Ten also have a very good QB in Hasselbeck and strong wide receivers. It is a very balanced attack that sets up play action passing with their good running game.
Tennessee put up over 400 yards on Baltimore last week which is very impressive. Because of this I’m comfortable laying -6.5 and I expect them to win big.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Big plays
Illinois -2.5 over Arizona State -106 2 units
Florida State +3.5 over Oklahoma -104 2 units
LA Tech +6.5 over Houston -110 1 unit
Florida State +3.5 over Oklahoma -104 2 units
LA Tech +6.5 over Houston -110 1 unit
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Friday, September 9, 2011
A few more home dogs
Kansas +4.5 over N Illinois -105 1 unit
This line is going down but still plenty of value here. I like Kansas and think they will be good ATS this year. They have some experience and new head coach Gill is doing good things imo.
NI has a very inexperienced defense and a new coach who is playing it's first road game.
Kansas should be favored in my book.
Colorado +4.5 over California +120 1 unit
Trying Colorado again since I liked what I saw last week. Some protection problems but that was expected. First home game for the new coach that will have everyone fired up.
This is another team that I think will be good ATS, especially at home. It's important to remember the huge advantage CU has playing their home game on high altitude. College games are often 4 hours long and many teams wear down late in the game.
This line is going down but still plenty of value here. I like Kansas and think they will be good ATS this year. They have some experience and new head coach Gill is doing good things imo.
NI has a very inexperienced defense and a new coach who is playing it's first road game.
Kansas should be favored in my book.
Colorado +4.5 over California +120 1 unit
Trying Colorado again since I liked what I saw last week. Some protection problems but that was expected. First home game for the new coach that will have everyone fired up.
This is another team that I think will be good ATS, especially at home. It's important to remember the huge advantage CU has playing their home game on high altitude. College games are often 4 hours long and many teams wear down late in the game.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Under
for the first NFL game of the year
New Orleans-Green Bay under 47.5 -105 1 unit
These are two very good teams and yes, they can score some points. It is important to remember that these defenses are also very good. They were the 4th and the 5th ranked in the leauge last year. GB had many injuries last year I think their defense will be even sharper.
Some interesting stats
Under is 9-3 in Saints last 12 games in Week 1.
Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on grass.
Under is 17-7 in Saints last 24 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
New Orleans-Green Bay under 47.5 -105 1 unit
These are two very good teams and yes, they can score some points. It is important to remember that these defenses are also very good. They were the 4th and the 5th ranked in the leauge last year. GB had many injuries last year I think their defense will be even sharper.
Some interesting stats
Under is 9-3 in Saints last 12 games in Week 1.
Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on grass.
Under is 17-7 in Saints last 24 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Early Dogs
The way these home dogs are going down it is necessary to bet some of them early. From what I see on the boards these are going to go down the next few days.
Army +9.5 over San Diego State -103 1 unit
Army looked terrible in their first game but they are not a bad team. I think they will bounce back strong at home.
SDST are traveling across the country to an early kickoff at noon on the east coast. This is a very difficult spot for them since that will be 9 in the morning their time. This is unusual in college football but more common in the NFL. In the NFL west coast teams struggle in this situation and I believe these young kids will have a tough time adjusting.
Penn State +10 over Alabama -105 1 unit
An experienced home dog against a ranked team is usually a very successful formula in college football. This game is huge for Penn with nothing to lose on prime time TV with the whole country watching.
Alabama is very good but their QBs did not look good at all last week. I see the Alabama being a little too predictable because of this. The Penn D will be fired up and with all the experience they have, they should keep it close.
This week’s card looks very nice and I will have at least two more home dogs but we will likely get better offers closer to Saturday so I’ll wait with those.
Army +9.5 over San Diego State -103 1 unit
Army looked terrible in their first game but they are not a bad team. I think they will bounce back strong at home.
SDST are traveling across the country to an early kickoff at noon on the east coast. This is a very difficult spot for them since that will be 9 in the morning their time. This is unusual in college football but more common in the NFL. In the NFL west coast teams struggle in this situation and I believe these young kids will have a tough time adjusting.
Penn State +10 over Alabama -105 1 unit
An experienced home dog against a ranked team is usually a very successful formula in college football. This game is huge for Penn with nothing to lose on prime time TV with the whole country watching.
Alabama is very good but their QBs did not look good at all last week. I see the Alabama being a little too predictable because of this. The Penn D will be fired up and with all the experience they have, they should keep it close.
This week’s card looks very nice and I will have at least two more home dogs but we will likely get better offers closer to Saturday so I’ll wait with those.
Monday, September 5, 2011
The U tonight
Miami +4 over Maryland -105(1.95) 1 unit
Miami is in huge trouble with the NCAA and will have to go trough a long investigation. This is why they are a dog in this game. They have several players suspended fro this game including the starting QB. In these situations it is typical for the public to over react and think the betting the home team is a steal.
I think Miami will come together as a team and win this game. The have a new good coach so in that way it's a fresh start. The weather is expected to be wet so I like Miami to run the ball and control the game and the clock in this game.
I also took Arizona early since I think that line will go under 14 by game time.
Arizona +14.5 over Oklahoma State -108(1.92) 1 unit
Miami is in huge trouble with the NCAA and will have to go trough a long investigation. This is why they are a dog in this game. They have several players suspended fro this game including the starting QB. In these situations it is typical for the public to over react and think the betting the home team is a steal.
I think Miami will come together as a team and win this game. The have a new good coach so in that way it's a fresh start. The weather is expected to be wet so I like Miami to run the ball and control the game and the clock in this game.
I also took Arizona early since I think that line will go under 14 by game time.
Arizona +14.5 over Oklahoma State -108(1.92) 1 unit
Friday, September 2, 2011
More fotball:)
NCAA Fotball
Saturday
South Florida +10.5 over Notre Dame -107(1.93) 1.5 units
Notre Dame has a high preseason ranking and they are being hyped in the media. ND has struggled for a long time but is still strangely enough a very public team. They have been horrible as a favorite and especially as a big fav.
Below are some very telling stats from last year.
· Fighting Irish are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
· Fighting Irish are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.
· Fighting Irish are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
· Fighting Irish are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
· Fighting Irish are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big East.
· Fighting Irish are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.
· Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
· Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
· Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
I see some very good forum posters on this game and watching the market I’m very confident in this pick.
LSU +3.5 over Oregon -110(1.91) 1 unit
Other books with similar and Pinnacle with a bit lower
It’s been crazy for both teams before this game with suspensions for both teams. LSU will play their backup QB which made them a bigger dog. However, I and others with me think they have a better chance with the backup that is a very capable player.
LSU is an interesting team with a crazy coach in Miles but I like them as a dog. LSU has a great D line and a very fast secondary. The speed on defense will able to disturb the fast Oregon offense imo.
There is some reverse line movement on this game so sharp money agrees here.
This game is played in Dallas so it’s more of a home field for LSU.
UL Lafayette +38 over Oklahoma State -105(1.95) 1 unit
The squares and the public like to bet the favorites, especially in the first week. I like a few big dogs but this is the best one imo. Oklahoma State is ranked 8th in the country which is their highest ever pre season rank. OSU has had a few good years but this team is still not used to be a big time program. They have a very big game coming up against Arizona and many players will look forward to that game. I see OSU playing pretty sloppy in this first game. OSU has a new offensive coordinator which also could affect them.
ULL is obviously not good but they have an ok offensive line and a great TE. With only 5 starters returning for OSU on defense I can see the away team scoring some points.
With a big game coming up I can see OSU pulling some starters in the end opening up for a back door cover if needed.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
First NCAA play
NCAAF
Saturday
Colorado +7 over Hawaii -107(1.93) @ Pinnacle 1 units
Colorado is undervalued because they have a 17 game losing streak on the road and a new coaching staff. However, the old coach was an idiot imo so I think this team might surprise this year. They return 16 starters which is huge. Experience is huge in NCAA sports since the players are only 18-22 years old.
Hawaii is only bringing back 9 starters from last year with only 4 on offense. The Hawaii QB is good but his receivers have had some injuries getting ready for the season and their main WR is suspended for this game.
I expect this line to go down by Saturday so I think it’s best to take it now.
I will have a few more bets but will wait on those since the lines are moving the right way.
Fotball season is finally here:)
The football season starts for real tomorrow with NCAA and here are a few lines about it since this sport is a little different from many others. I also explain some about how I bet for the new readers.
Here is how the value is created imo. It is not about beating the books. It is about beating the other bettors. Public perception creates the value and often I “need” the same results as the books to profit. This means that I often bet “big games” such as the Super bowl, NCAA finals since “the public” always bet these games hard, creating nice value.
The public also often bets certain teams hard. These public teams are usually a good fade especially when they play on the road. Since there are many games it is very doable making a profit if picking games selectively.
Previous years I have picked many games late since it is important to know the latest about who will play and who won’t. I will still post some picks late, because of late info but also bets that are getting steamed late. However, I will post more bets early before odds are starting to go down. I have already done that this year in the NFL and will continue.
I’m mainly a dog bettors and I like to take small dogs for the first half since they might not get +3 for FT but any + line is very valuable for the HT bet since a game can be tied in HT but not FT.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Monday, August 29, 2011
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Big Play
against Verlander today
Minnesota +1.5 over Detroit +111(2.11) 1.5 units
Minnesota +190(2.9) 0.5 units
Minnesota +1.5 over Detroit +111(2.11) 1.5 units
Minnesota +190(2.9) 0.5 units
Friday, August 26, 2011
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Two early big nfl bets
Sep 12
Washington +3.5 over New York -110(1.91) 2 units
Washington is just about to finish their 3rd preseason game when I write this. The starters played the first half and they looked great. The offense looked sharp and the defense played very aggressive.
I think Washington could be a surprise team this season. They have the second highest odds to win the super bowl this year. However, Shanahan is a very good coach and has had some time to get this roster and scheme like he wants it. They are very under rated because of their QBs. The public and media is laughing at Grossman and Beck but they sure looked sharp today imo.
Pinnacle went from 1.88 down to 1.82 since the game started so it’s obvious that the sharps agree here.
New York had one very important injury last game with a starting corner back going down. That is a big blow to them and Washington will be able to exploit that. NY is a pretty solid team but they have too many weaknesses imo. QB Manning is overated imo. He had 31 tds last year but 25 ints aswell. That is many mistakes and with this aggressive Wash defense I think it’s likely Manning will make mistakes.
Washington will be very fired up in this home opener. Home field advantage is huge here and woerth more than the regular 3 points imo. The total for this game is 37 which is a low number in the NFL. Getting 3.5 is a big spread in a probably low scoring game. Most games are won by 3 so getting the hook is very valuable.
I think Washington should be favored about -3 here so it’s worth a major bet. I’m confident these odds will change quiet a bit so I advise also to set this up for a middle.
Just like the Denver bet I wish I could wait but this offer will not be here much longer…..
Denver -2.5 over Oakland -110(1.91) 1.5 units
Usually I don’t take bets this far in advance since things can change and injuries can happen but I make an exception. I had my eye on this one but now the line is changing and it is a must before this one hits -3 and beyond. Denver is under rated because of their terrible season last year. It was mostly their defense that struggled and was added on to with injuries. They have a new head coach(Fox) who’s focus is on defense. His defense has looked much improved in the first 2 games of the preseason. The offense looks sharp with both the passing and running looking good.
Oakland is over rated after going 6-0 in their division last year. They had some good breaks in some games and are not a solid team imo. They lost their best defender from last year and the defense has looked open in the preseason.
This will be a very emotional game for Denver. They got blown on twice against Oakland last year losing 59-14 at home. This is a Monday night game on prime time so home field advantage will be greater imo. Since it is also a big revenge game I really like this situation.
Denver will be better on both sides of the ball imo. There is a big difference between the QBs. Campbell had 13 tds and 8 int last year while Orton had 20-9.
Denver will play a different tougher type of football this year and so far it looks great. This style will fit perfect at home on a Monday night with the whole country watching. It’s important to take this before it hits 3 but I think they win comfortable by 10 so it’s worth an above med stake.
Washington +3.5 over New York -110(1.91) 2 units
Washington is just about to finish their 3rd preseason game when I write this. The starters played the first half and they looked great. The offense looked sharp and the defense played very aggressive.
I think Washington could be a surprise team this season. They have the second highest odds to win the super bowl this year. However, Shanahan is a very good coach and has had some time to get this roster and scheme like he wants it. They are very under rated because of their QBs. The public and media is laughing at Grossman and Beck but they sure looked sharp today imo.
Pinnacle went from 1.88 down to 1.82 since the game started so it’s obvious that the sharps agree here.
New York had one very important injury last game with a starting corner back going down. That is a big blow to them and Washington will be able to exploit that. NY is a pretty solid team but they have too many weaknesses imo. QB Manning is overated imo. He had 31 tds last year but 25 ints aswell. That is many mistakes and with this aggressive Wash defense I think it’s likely Manning will make mistakes.
Washington will be very fired up in this home opener. Home field advantage is huge here and woerth more than the regular 3 points imo. The total for this game is 37 which is a low number in the NFL. Getting 3.5 is a big spread in a probably low scoring game. Most games are won by 3 so getting the hook is very valuable.
I think Washington should be favored about -3 here so it’s worth a major bet. I’m confident these odds will change quiet a bit so I advise also to set this up for a middle.
Just like the Denver bet I wish I could wait but this offer will not be here much longer…..
Denver -2.5 over Oakland -110(1.91) 1.5 units
Usually I don’t take bets this far in advance since things can change and injuries can happen but I make an exception. I had my eye on this one but now the line is changing and it is a must before this one hits -3 and beyond. Denver is under rated because of their terrible season last year. It was mostly their defense that struggled and was added on to with injuries. They have a new head coach(Fox) who’s focus is on defense. His defense has looked much improved in the first 2 games of the preseason. The offense looks sharp with both the passing and running looking good.
Oakland is over rated after going 6-0 in their division last year. They had some good breaks in some games and are not a solid team imo. They lost their best defender from last year and the defense has looked open in the preseason.
This will be a very emotional game for Denver. They got blown on twice against Oakland last year losing 59-14 at home. This is a Monday night game on prime time so home field advantage will be greater imo. Since it is also a big revenge game I really like this situation.
Denver will be better on both sides of the ball imo. There is a big difference between the QBs. Campbell had 13 tds and 8 int last year while Orton had 20-9.
Denver will play a different tougher type of football this year and so far it looks great. This style will fit perfect at home on a Monday night with the whole country watching. It’s important to take this before it hits 3 but I think they win comfortable by 10 so it’s worth an above med stake.
Barclays 1st round
PGA Tour Barclays
1900 CET
Mahan over Dustin Johnson +100 @ Pinnacle 1.5 units
The Greek also offering the same play
Both players have not played as well as can lately. Mahan has played better with 34,37,19 his last 3.
Johnsons current form is not good with 48th(in a small 75 players field) and a missed cut in the PGA.
Johnson is often hit or miss since he has several low finishes but also often play bad.
Mahan often starts tournaments well with a scoring average of 70(11th on tour) for the two first rounds of tournaments. Johnson has 71.2(122th on tour in that category) This stat does not lie. Mahan starts much better than Johnson. With Johnson being a little out of form this is clearly worth a play since Mahan should be favored. I also like going against Johnson since I know he has an off the course issue....
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