Early Dogs

The way these home dogs are going down it is necessary to bet some of them early. From what I see on the boards these are going to go down the next few days.

Army +9.5 over San Diego State -103 1 unit

Army looked terrible in their first game but they are not a bad team. I think they will bounce back strong at home.
SDST are traveling across the country to an early kickoff at noon on the east coast. This is a very difficult spot for them since that will be 9 in the morning their time. This is unusual in college football but more common in the NFL. In the NFL west coast teams struggle in this situation and I believe these young kids will have a tough time adjusting.

Penn State +10 over Alabama -105 1 unit 

An experienced home dog against a ranked team is usually a very successful formula in college football. This game is huge for Penn with nothing to lose on prime time TV with the whole country watching.
Alabama is very good but their QBs did not look good at all last week. I see the Alabama being a little too predictable because of this. The Penn D will be fired up and with all the experience they have, they should keep it close.

This week’s card looks very nice and I will have at least two more home dogs but we will likely get better offers closer to Saturday so I’ll wait with those.   

The U tonight

Miami +4 over Maryland -105(1.95) 1 unit

Miami is in huge trouble with the NCAA and will have to go trough a long investigation. This is why they are a dog in this game. They have several players suspended fro this game including the starting QB. In these situations it is typical for the public to over react and think the betting the home team is a steal.

I think Miami will come together as a team and win this game. The have a new good coach so in that way it's a fresh start. The weather is expected to be wet so I like Miami to run the ball and control the game and the clock in this game.

I also took Arizona early since I think that line will go under 14 by game time.

Arizona +14.5 over Oklahoma State -108(1.92) 1 unit    

More fotball:)

NCAA Fotball

Saturday

South Florida +10.5 over Notre Dame -107(1.93) 1.5 units  

Notre Dame has a high preseason ranking and they are being hyped in the media. ND has struggled for a long time but is still strangely enough a very public team. They have been horrible as a favorite and especially as a big fav.

Below are some very telling stats from last year.

·         Fighting Irish are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

·         Fighting Irish are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.

·         Fighting Irish are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

·         Fighting Irish are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.

·         Fighting Irish are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big East.

·         Fighting Irish are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.

·         Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

This is simply a big spread to cover and SF is not at all a bad team. There is always a lot of pressure on ND

SF is a very good underdog. They have a good running game and a solid defense.

· Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

·         Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

I see some very good forum posters on this game and watching the market I’m very confident in this pick.

 

LSU +3.5 over Oregon -110(1.91) 1 unit

Other books with similar and Pinnacle with a bit lower

It’s been crazy for both teams before this game with suspensions for both teams. LSU will play their backup QB which made them a bigger dog. However, I and others with me think they have a better chance with the backup that is a very capable player.

LSU is an interesting team with a crazy coach in Miles but I like them as a dog. LSU has a great D line and a very fast secondary. The speed on defense will able to disturb the fast Oregon offense imo.

There is some reverse line movement on this game so sharp money agrees here.

This game is played in Dallas so it’s more of a home field for LSU.

 UL Lafayette +38 over Oklahoma State -105(1.95) 1 unit 

The squares and the public like to bet the favorites, especially in the first week. I like a few big dogs but this is the best one imo. Oklahoma State is ranked 8^th in the country which is their highest ever pre season rank. OSU has had a few good years but this team is still not used to be a big time program. They have a very big game coming up against Arizona and many players will look forward to that game. I see OSU playing pretty sloppy in this first game. OSU has a new offensive coordinator which also could affect them.

ULL is obviously not good but they have an ok offensive line and a great TE. With only 5 starters returning for OSU on defense I can see the away team scoring some points.

With a big game coming up I can see OSU pulling some starters in the end opening up for a back door cover if needed.

First NCAA play

NCAAF

Saturday

Colorado +7 over Hawaii -107(1.93) @ Pinnacle 1 units

Colorado is undervalued because they have a 17 game losing streak on the road and a new coaching staff. However, the old coach was an idiot imo so I think this team might surprise this year. They return 16 starters which is huge. Experience is huge in NCAA sports since the players are only 18-22 years old.

Hawaii is only bringing back 9 starters from last year with only 4 on offense. The Hawaii QB is good but his receivers have had some injuries getting ready for the season and their main WR is suspended for this game.

I expect this line to go down by Saturday so I think it’s best to take it now.

I will have a few more bets but will wait on those since the lines are moving the right way.

Fotball season is finally here:)

The football season starts for real tomorrow with NCAA and here are a few lines about it since this sport is a little different from many others. I also explain some about how I bet for the new readers.

 Here is how the value is created imo. It is not about beating the books. It is about beating the other bettors. Public perception creates the value and often I “need” the same results as the books to profit. This means that I often bet “big games” such as the Super bowl, NCAA finals since “the public” always bet these games hard, creating nice value.

The public also often bets certain teams hard. These public teams are usually a good fade especially when they play on the road. Since there are many games it is very doable making a profit if picking games selectively.

Previous years I have picked many games late since it is important to know the latest about who will play and who won’t. I will still post some picks late, because of late info but also bets that are getting steamed late. However, I will post more bets early before odds are starting to go down. I have already done that this year in the NFL and will continue.

I’m mainly a dog bettors and I like to take small dogs for the first half since they might not get +3 for FT but any + line is very valuable for the HT bet since a game can be tied in HT but not FT.

2 plays today

St Louis +135 1 unit

Colorado +120 1 unit

2 plays today

Minnesota +1.5 -120 over Chicago 1.5 units